US
US Economy
Topic
42.3%
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 15
Pending: 349
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
A negative non-farm payroll print is predicted to occur sometime in the next few months from November 2024.
"my guess is that in a few months might be more obvious like why you know maybe there will be a negat..."
Nov 2, 2024
Pending
US to experience 20-25% annual inflation for two or more years.
"but you will see 20 to 25 and I am here to tell you 25% even though there is not actually a real set..."
Nov 1, 2024
Incorrect
In 2025, after the election, the true extent of bad economic conditions (recession, bank crashes) will be revealed and attributed by political opponents/media to Trump's presidency.
"in 2025 as the truth comes out after this election... you are going to see all this truth come out a..."
Oct 30, 2024
Incorrect
In a potential future recession, the unemployment rate is predicted not to reach 10% as quickly as it did in the previous cycle.
"if you get a recession this cycle it might not occur as quickly just because it's probably not going..."
Oct 28, 2024
Pending
US jobless claims data is expected to be released, with previous claims at 240,000 and forecasts at 247,000. The key factor to watch will be whether the actual data surpasses or falls below the forecast.
"jobless claims um so this relates to you know of course our keeping a check at the feds dashboard yo..."
Oct 21, 2024
Pending
It was predicted to be difficult to make a case for stagflation or a major recession in the US economy over the next 3 to 6 months (October 2024 - April 2025).
"it's hard to make a stagflation case right then it's hard to make the big recession case... that's n..."
Oct 15, 2024
Pending
Concerns about inflation are predicted to re-emerge around late Spring or Summer of 2025.
"inflation starts to come back in view I think probably in the summertime next year or maybe maybe la..."
Oct 15, 2024
Pending
US jobs numbers are predicted to be good for the next 3 months (Oct, Nov, Dec 2024), and inflation numbers are predicted to be great for the next 3-6 months (until April 2025), potentially reaching 2% CPI.
"jobs jobs numbers should be good the next 3 months... inflation numbers are great for the next 3 to ..."
Oct 15, 2024
Pending
The economy will get better in 2025.
"I think there's a strong case to be made that the economy actually gets better in 25"
Oct 13, 2024
Pending
The US is entering a lower interest rate environment, making capital access easier for companies like Cheesecake Factory.
"We're going into a lower interest rate environment which means Kake can take on debt and get access ..."
Oct 13, 2024
Pending
US consumers are predicted to be in a much better financial position over the next 1-2 years.
"Now that the consumer is going to be in a much better spot over the next one to two years than certa..."
Oct 13, 2024
Pending
Real wages in the US are predicted to be strong in 2025, leading to a better economy.
"real wages are likely going to be in a really good spot in 2025"
Oct 13, 2024
Pending
Market expectation shifted from a 50 basis point Fed cut to a 25 basis point cut in November, with another 25 basis point cut likely in December, based on recent labor data and the Fed Dot Plot.
"we can look at the CME fed watch tool our handy tool over there and you can see that last week we we..."
Oct 7, 2024
Pending
Predicted that the US financial system, described as a 'house of cards,' will eventually collapse.
"it's a house of cards so it's eventually going to collapse"
Sep 30, 2024
Pending
Continued government spending is expected to make it difficult for the US economy to enter a recession.
"so long as the US government continues spending then it will be very hard for the US economy to fall..."
Sep 25, 2024
Pending
Mortgage rates will continue to decline for the next two years (~until Sept 2026), then bottom out and stagnate for 1-2 years (~until Sept 2028), before starting to rise again.
"mortgage rates are starting to come down and they're likely going to continue to come down for my gu..."
Sep 13, 2024
Pending
An interest rate cut cycle of 1-2 years will begin soon (from Sept 2024), and inflation will not be a significant issue for at least the next year.
"we're about to go into a rate cut cycle that's probably going to last I would say at least a year if..."
Sep 13, 2024
Pending
The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yield curve has a non-negligible chance of uninverting in September 2024.
"there's a non- negligible chance that in September the yield curve right the 2-year and the 10year w..."
Sep 2, 2024
Pending
Over the next 18-24 months, businesses may face significantly higher debt servicing costs due to readjusting interest rates, coinciding with declining consumer spending, potentially leading to economic strain.
"In the next coming 18 to 24 months we're going to see a lot of this business debt readjust at the hi..."
Aug 27, 2024
Pending
Current economic challenges, including high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a slowing economy, are projected to persist and are not yet resolved.
"The issues that we have in the economy with inflation the higher interest rates and the slowing econ..."
Aug 27, 2024
Pending
The current economic challenges, including inflation, high interest rates, and economic slowdown, are projected to continue.
"The issues that we have in the economy with inflation the higher interest rates and the slowing econ..."
Aug 27, 2024
Pending
There is a possibility of a recession in December 2024.
"could we be in a recession come December [2024]"
Aug 23, 2024
Pending
Bank of America predicts no US recession by the end of 2024.
"on the other hand Bank of America predicts no recession"
Aug 17, 2024
Correct
JP Morgan predicts a 35% probability of a US recession occurring by the end of 2024.
"JP Morgan has assigned 35% probability of us recession hitting the market by the end of this year"
Aug 17, 2024
Incorrect
If Trump's proposed 10% global and 60% China tariffs are introduced, US economic prices are predicted to increase by 2.4%.
"JP Morgan did a study and they said that if both of the tariffs are introduced uh there will be an i..."
Aug 16, 2024
Pending
Under a Trump presidency, the US economy is predicted to see higher growth due to fiscal spending.
"because of the fiscal spending we're likely to see higher growth there as well"
Aug 16, 2024
Pending
A US recession is not predicted to be imminent. The Fed is predicted to make an 'insurance cut' in September 2024 to achieve a soft landing, cutting before a recession occurs.
"we don't think a recession is imminent the way everybody is saying it is um and the FED will cut in ..."
Aug 16, 2024
Pending
Trump's immigration policies of deporting illegal immigrants are predicted to cause a wage spiral in the US.
"taking these people out of the country might actually cause a wage spiral"
Aug 16, 2024
Pending
The US entered a recession by August 2, 2024, according to the S Rule based on unemployment data.
"as of Friday August 2nd uh unemployment data indicated that according to her rule we are now in a re..."
Aug 16, 2024
Pending
There will likely be an inflationary environment over the next 5 to 10 years.
"within a likely inflationary environment over the next 5 to 10 years"
Aug 16, 2024
Pending
Stimulus measures could lead to the economy supercharging and markets reaching new all-time highs by November.
"The result would be pandemic levels of stimulus which would supercharge the economy. It could even p..."
Aug 11, 2024
Pending
The decline of 'bullshit jobs' could lead to markets reaching new all-time highs.
"the end of [ __ ] jobs could take the markets to new all-time highs very soon"
Aug 11, 2024
Pending
If the US fiscal situation is not brought under control, the economy will face higher interest rates, skyrocketing inflation, and overall weakening.
"imagine higher interest rates skyrocketing inflation and a weaker economy that's the future we're fa..."
Aug 11, 2024
Pending
Goldman Sachs predicts a 25% chance of the US entering a recession by August 2025.
"Goldman Sachs said over the weekend that it now believed there was a twenty five percent chance of t..."
Aug 10, 2024
Pending
Current market volatility likely to cause a couple of months of 'hiccups' similar to the 2023 banking crisis, then market will recover.
"The banking situation it caused like a couple of months of of hiccups and then we we got over it so ..."
Aug 8, 2024
Pending
An economic downturn is expected to be short-lived, lasting 3 to 9 months at most, unless severe signs like widespread bankruptcy, job losses, extreme dollar strengthening, or real deflation emerge, which could lead to a depression.
"I'm really expecting something shortlived 3 months 6 months 9 months Max you know anything a little ..."
Aug 8, 2024
Pending
A US recession will begin if the yield curve uninverts and the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut.
"if the yield curves uninverted and then we get a rate cut I think our recession is going to start"
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
Predicted a high chance of the US economy entering a recession by August 2025.
"increased the probability of us going into a recession to 25% which they had earlier predicted at 15..."
Aug 5, 2024
Incorrect
The US jobs report for September 2024 is predicted to bounce back from recent low numbers.
"it's likely Friday's report was actually skewed lower and we're going to see a bounce back in Septem..."
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
The US economy is unlikely to devolve into a credit crisis, but a shallow recession is possible.
"I don't see this devolving into some sort of credit crisis maybe maybe you get a like a shallowest r..."
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
The US economy is predicted to move towards a hard landing because the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates while economic data (like jobs) is deteriorating rapidly.
"we're slowly moving into hard Landing why because we're going to be cutting rates while the data is ..."
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
The speaker predicts a bearish market and a hard landing recession if the Fed cuts rates while economic data continues to decline, in contrast to a soft landing.
"I lean towards bearish if they cut rates I don't think it's good... we're slowly moving into hard La..."
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
A recession is predicted to begin if the yield curve uninverts and the Federal Reserve initiates a rate cut.
"I would honestly say if if you get if the yield curves uninverted and then we get a rate cut I think..."
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
A recession would be more problematic if oil prices are high; if oil prices are down during an economic downturn, it's a healthier sign.
"recession wise if oil is up we're going to have a real big problem but even if we get all this bad s..."
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
Recessions are expected to last 3 to 12 months, after which long-term investments will recover.
"the recession is only going to be for three four 6 months maybe a year if it's really bad... Your yo..."
Aug 5, 2024
Pending
US economy predicted to enter recession by November 2024.
"we're either in recession right now or we will be going into recession likely within the next 3 mont..."
Aug 2, 2024
Pending
The US economy will remain strong and avoid collapse as long as home building activity continues to increase.
"how are you going to kill the economy if there's a bunch more homes that are being built"
Jul 26, 2024
Pending
The US economy is projected to experience a downturn, characterized by slower growth, potential job losses, and reduced consumer spending.
"This suggests that the economy is losing Steam and may be headed for a downturn the signs are becomi..."
Jul 14, 2024
Pending
The current consumer recession will last at least until the end of 2024.
"we're going through a consumer recession right now it's going to last at least to the end of this ye..."
Jul 6, 2024
Pending
US credit card delinquency numbers are predicted to worsen over the next three quarters (Q3 2024 - Q1 2025), reaching their peak by late 2024 or early 2025.
"these numbers will likely get worse in my opinion over the next three quarters and then they'll prob..."
Jul 3, 2024
Pending